Haiti (Country threat level - ): Aid and recovery efforts are ongoing in Port-au-Prince and throughout other areas impacted by a 7.0 magnitude earthquake that occurred on 12 January 2010. The U.S. military is still in control of operations at Toussaint Louverture International Airport (MTPP/PAP), and 120-140 aid flights are landing at the facility each day. Reports indicate that 2,550 flights are expected to land in Port-au-Prince through 1 March. Despite improving coordination to handle the massive influx of aid, logistical problems continue to hamper the delivery of supplies. For example, at least 100 ships are en route to Haiti, but Port-au-Prince’s main seaport still has very limited capacity and ships are required to have their own cranes and offloading equipment. The U.S. military has made it a priority to reopen the seaport, but aftershocks have delayed these efforts, and it is unclear when it will be fully operational. Ground travel also remains hazardous, and reports indicate that travel from the airport -- which is located on the eastern side of Port-au-Prince -- to the city’s western areas is taking up to three hours due to debris in the roadways and damage to the roads themselves.

A new food and water distribution plan became fully operational on 4 February. The plan -- which is being coordinated by the United Nations, several non-governmental humanitarian agencies and the Haitian government -- features 16 fixed distribution points and a coupon voucher system to receive supplies. The coupons are being specifically distributed to women in an effort to increase the likelihood of equal distribution of supplies among families. The U.N. estimates that approximately 600,000 people have been fed through this program so far. Although there have been some reports of counterfeit coupons, the system has been a vast improvement over initial distribution plans.

Meanwhile, the U.S. military -- which has provided security at many distribution points and escorted aid convoys -- has announced plans to begin leaving Haiti. The USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier is expected to leave soon, as are the soldiers from the 24th Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU). However, 15 other naval ships, including the USNS Comfort hospital ship, will remain deployed in Haiti for the time being.

In regard to the security environment, Haitian police officers have recaptured 100 of the 4,000 inmates who escaped from Port-au-Prince’s collapsed penitentiary, and authorities have appealed to residents to notify authorities if they know a convict is in the area. The inmates are being held in prisons outside of the capital. Demonstrations to protest the slow delivery of aid continue to be reported, and residents are also voicing fears of increasing crime rates, especially in makeshift resettlement camps. For example, on 3 February approximately 300 people gathered outside the mayor’s office in Petionville to demand food, water and work, threatening to “set things ablaze” if security forces attempted to disperse them. Reports are also suggesting that hostility toward foreign journalists and photographers may be increasing, as a photographer was robbed at knifepoint on 2 February. The ever-present threat of child traffickers taking advantage of the chaos in Haiti has also been highlighted following an attempt by a group of Americans to bring 33 undocumented Haitian children into the Dominican Republic.

Haitian Prime Minister Jean-Max Bellerive has stated that the death toll currently stands at 212,000 people. The earthquake injured an additional 300,000 people and made 1 million people homeless throughout the impacted area.

In view of the fact that there have been few significant developments in Haiti as in the days and weeks immediately following the earthquake, ASI Group will discontinue issuing weekly updates. ASI Group will continue to notify clients of any significant developments via Hot Spots as necessary, and will also update clients via our other usual platforms.

United States (Country threat level - ): The U.S. government announced on 8 February 2010 that most federal agency offices in the Washington, D.C., area will remain closed following a massive blizzard that brought record snowfall to the mid-Atlantic region. Many homes and businesses in the metropolitan area reportedly remain without power, while work crews have struggled to clear the snow and keep the city’s roads clear for traffic. There are only limited flight operations at Baltimore-Washington International Airport (KBWI/BWI), Dulles International Airport (KIAD/IAD) and Reagan National Airport (KDCA/DCA), although runways at all three airports have remained open. Residents and travelers to the Washington, D.C., metropolitan area have been advised to stay off the roads and avoid unnecessary travel as heavy snowfall is expected to continue for the next several days.

United States (Country threat level - ): A gas explosion occurred on 7 February 2010 at the Kleen Energy Power Plant in Middletown, Connecticut (located 24 mi/39 km south of Hartford). Authorities confirmed that at least five people were killed in the blast, and unconfirmed reports indicate that at least 12 and as many as 50 people may have been injured. The explosion was felt in towns as far as 15 mi/24 km away from Middletown, and reportedly caused some damage to houses in the plant's immediate vicinity. No power outages have been reported in the area as a result of the blast, as the plant was under construction and was not supplying power to the grid.

ASIA

Taiwan / Japan (Country threat levels - / ): On 7 February 2010 a preliminary 6.4 magnitude earthquake struck near the Ryukyu Islands in southern Japan off the eastern Taiwanese coast. The undersea quake struck at a depth of 10 mi/16 km and was centered in an area about 155 mi/250 km west of Taiwan. Eyewitnesses in Taipei reported feeling the strong tremor, although there were no reports of damage or injuries. Although the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center determined that there was little chance of the quake producing a destructive wave, the Japanese government issued a localized tsunami warning for the Ryukyu Islands area and advised that a small wave of around 1.6 ft/50 cm was likely to come ashore. The tsunami warning was withdrawn an hour later.

Thailand (Country threat level - ): According to reports on 8 February 2010, police and military officials will be deployed beginning on 15 February ahead of the planned protest actions by the United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD) on 26 February, which coincides with the announcement of the verdict against former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. The security increase will take place in 38 different provinces, and nearly 200 checkpoints will be set up in Bangkok and several other provinces. The government warned that it will impose the Internal Security Act (ISA) if the situation requires it. The security measures will extend past 26 February as protest actions could continue after the ruling.

Meanwhile on 8 February, UDD members protested in front of the Office of the Attorney-General (OAG) to demand answers regarding the prosecution of People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD) members. The protest began at noon local time and was reportedly peaceful in nature.

Ukraine (Country threat level - ): Supporters of presidential candidate Victor Yanukovich have gathered near the Central Election Commission in Kiev on 8 February 2010 a day after he came out ahead of Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko in a runoff election. Reports indicate that approximately 5,000 people were participating in the action, with their numbers growing. Leaders of the Party of Regions -- Yanukovich's party -- have previously indicated that 50,000 people would participate in the rally. The party has also set up dozens of tents at the presidential secretariat, the Cabinet building and the Central Election Commission.

With more than 98 percent of the vote counted, Yanukovich is ahead with 48.6 percent of the vote, while Tymoshenko has 45.81 percent. Tymoshenko has refused to concede the election, and has postponed a scheduled news conference until 9 February. She had previously threatened to call rallies if there was evidence of voter fraud; however, the election has so far met the approval of international monitors.

Thus far, the election has not prompted any unrest or a change in the security environment in Ukraine. However, the Ukrainian National Security Service (SBU) reportedly detained a Georgian national carrying a firearm, explosives and detonators on Kiev’s Independence Square on 5 February. The man was also carrying a Ukrainian passport. It is not known what he had planned to do with the explosives, but an attempted bombing at one of the pre-election rallies that took place on 5 February is being considered as a possibility.

Iraq (Country threat level - ): An extraordinary parliamentary session to discuss the banning and subsequent reinstatement of hundreds of candidates wishing to stand in the upcoming parliamentary elections was postponed on 7 February 2010 and was then canceled on 8 February; the Parliament reportedly received assurances that judges will soon resolve the row. Developments related to the Accountability and Justice Commission’s January 2010 decision to ban more than 500 candidates from running in the election have been highly contentious in Iraq, as Sunnis accused the government of attempting to stifle competition in the election. Tensions were further stoked in February 2010 when a review panel overturned the ban and reinstated the politicians, prompting criticism and several demonstrations by Shiites. The controversy led the election commission to postpone the start of election campaigning by one week until a final decision is reached regarding whether the previously banned candidates will be allowed to run in the 7 March election. Concerns are growing regarding the potential for political and sectarian tensions to spike in Iraq, and the holding of elections could be in jeopardy if the political row is not resolved soon.

Côte d’Ivoire (Country threat level - 4 ): A protest against election delays and the publication of voter lists escalated into rioting in the western town of Man, located near the Liberian border, on 5 February 2010. Approximately 5,000 protesters overran the 200 security forces in town and attacked the local courthouse. Local sources indicated that the protesters attacked officials with rocks and sticks and raided the official building, taking computers and documents. Businesses and public operations were shut down in the city following the riot.

Similar protests were reported in the towns of Katiola and Divo in recent days, an indication of rising tensions ahead of long-delayed elections that are scheduled for early or mid 2010. A specific date has not yet been set.

ASI Comment: The recent protests come in the aftermath of President Laurent Gbagbo's recent decision to delay the publication of voting lists following government allegations that the opposition-run electoral commission has been illegally adding voters to the register. Officials have called for a review of the lists and demanded that these voters be excluded. The opposition maintains that the recent measure is another stall tactic by the administration in an effort to retain power. Security concerns have increased as the recent protests have occurred in both the government-controlled south and in the rebels' stronghold areas, indicating a widespread dissatisfaction with the ongoing election delays. There is an increasing threat that the ongoing delays to the vote -- which was to have been held in 2005 -- will result in widespread unrest. Such a development could easily destabilize the fragile nation, which is continuing to recover from years of civil war.

Equatorial Guinea (Country threat level - ): Sources reported on 7 February 2010 that Deputy Head of National Security Captain Bienvenido Esono Engonga, stationed in the mainland city of Bata, has been dismissed from office and detained for allegedly planning a coup. Officials indicated that Engonga was currently being transported to Malabo, the capital, and that he has been replaced by a police officer. Engonga was named the second in command of security during a government reshuffle following the February 2009 attack on the presidential palace.

ASI Comment: Although Equatorial Guinea is a coup-prone nation, such allegations in the past have been used to remove political figures from power. An Engonga family member stated that the allegations were being used as a pretext to replace him. President Teodoro Obiang Nguema has also been known to use such measures and allegations as a means to prove that strong security measures are in place, thus deterring any potential attacks on his administration or authority.

Guinea (Country threat level - ): Reports on 7 February 2010 indicated that three days of clashes between Christians and Muslims in the southern Guinean town of Nzerekore have resulted in three fatalities and an undisclosed number of injuries. Security forces are deployed in the area in an attempt to quell the ongoing violent incidents. Witnesses stated that Christians appeared to be attacking Muslims with machetes and knives while soldiers fired shots into the air to try and disperse the crowds in the most recent clash. On 5 February Muslims attacked Christians after a local dispute got out of hand.

ASI Comment: The town of Nzerekore is the hometown of exiled junta leader Moussa Dadis Camara and the region is also home to Camara’s ethnic Christian minority group. Many people in the area have been angered by Camara’s recent exile and ouster from power. Although the recent violence initially appeared to be a religious dispute, ethnic differences and ongoing nation-wide developments have politicized the tensions aggravating the disputes. Ongoing instability concerns and simmering ethnic tensions in the nation have the potential to further aggravate the situation, and could result in ongoing violence over an extended period of time, especially in the town of Nzerekore. There are further concerns that the violence may spread, affecting security concerns in the entire country.

SIGNIFICANT DATES

10 February

Iran: 11 Days of Dawn (Commemoration of the 1979 revolution; rallies and celebrations likely. Opposition rallies possible as well.)
Italy: Venice Carnival
Malta: The Feast of St. Paul's Shipwreck (Commemorates the shipwreck of St. Paul on Malta in 60 AD; Public holiday)

11 February

Iran: 11 Days of Dawn (Commemoration of the 1979 revolution; rallies and celebrations likely. Opposition rallies possible as well.)
Italy: Venice Carnival
Cameroon: Youth Day (Public holiday)
Hungary: Day of Honor (Not a public holiday, but far right groups stage demonstrations)
Japan: Foundation Day (Kenkoku Kinen no Hi). Pays homage to the beginning of the imperial system in Japan. Government and business offices close.
Liberia: Armed Forces Day (Public holiday)

12 February

Italy: Venice Carnival
Canada: Winter Olympics in Vancouver
France (Nice): The Carnival de Nice, a period of parades and revelry in the weeks leading up to Lent, begins. Other cities and villages also have their own smaller versions. Lasts through 2 March.
India: Maha Shivaratri (Fasts and prayers among Shiva devotees; largest festivals are at Girnar in Gujarat and Kathmandu, Nepal.)
Mauritius: Maha Shivaratri (Public holiday; everything closes.)
Myanmar: Union Day (Public holiday)
Middle East & North Africa: Anniversary of the 2008 assassination of Hizballah official Imad Mugniyah in Syria. Demonstrations or commemorations rallies may take place.

13 February

Italy: Venice Carnival
Canada: Winter Olympics in Vancouver
France (Nice): The Carnival de Nice, a period of parades and revelry in the weeks leading up to Lent, begins. Other cities and villages also have their own smaller versions. Lasts through 2 March.
Australia: Regatta Day (South Tasmania only)
China: New Year (Businesses and government offices closed. Public parades and celebrations may affect transportation.)
Taiwan: Lunar New Year (Public and bank holiday; Government and business offices closed. Potential transportation delays possible.)
Vietnam: Tet Eve (Vietnamese Lunar New Years)
Latin America and Caribbean: Carnival for Latin America and the Caribbean. Celebration dates and traditions vary in each country (In Brazil, large celebrations are expected in Rio de Janeiro and other cities. Some shops, businesses and offices close.)

14 February

Italy: Venice Carnival
Canada: Winter Olympics in Vancouver
France (Nice): The Carnival de Nice, a period of parades and revelry in the weeks leading up to Lent, begins. Other cities and villages also have their own smaller versions. Lasts through 2 March.
China: New Year (Businesses and government offices closed. Public parades and celebrations may affect transportation.)
Taiwan: Lunar New Year (Public and bank holiday; Government and business offices closed. Potential transportation delays possible.)
Vietnam: Tet Eve (Vietnamese Lunar New Years)
Latin America and Caribbean: Carnival for Latin America and the Caribbean. Celebration dates and traditions vary in each country (In Brazil, large celebrations are expected in Rio de Janeiro and other cities. Some shops, businesses and offices close.)
Bulgaria: Trifon Zarezan (Wine-Grower's Day)
India: Valentine's Day (Not a public holiday. Although this is a Western holiday, some Hindu hardliners may demonstrate and harass those who appear to be celebrating the holiday, especially in Mumbai.)
Lebanon: Anniversary of 2005 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri (Demonstrations and commemoration rallies likely; violence possible, especially in Beirut.)
Worldwide: Lunar New Year (Chinese communities in Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and other countries. Observed as Tet in Vietnam, Lunar New Year in Mongolia and Seol-Nal in Koreas. Businesses and government offices closed in various countries. Public parades and celebrations may affect transportation throughout Asia.)

15 February

Italy: Venice Carnival
Canada: Winter Olympics in Vancouver
France (Nice): The Carnival de Nice, a period of parades and revelry in the weeks leading up to Lent, begins. Other cities and villages also have their own smaller versions. Lasts through 2 March.
China: New Year (Businesses and government offices closed. Public parades and celebrations may affect transportation.)
Taiwan: Lunar New Year (Public and bank holiday; Government and business offices closed. Potential transportation delays possible.)
Vietnam: Tet Eve (Vietnamese Lunar New Years)
Latin America and Caribbean: Carnival for Latin America and the Caribbean. Celebration dates and traditions vary in each country (In Brazil, large celebrations are expected in Rio de Janeiro and other cities. Some shops, businesses and offices close.)
Canada (Alberta, Ontario and Saskatchewan only): Family Day (Most private and government offices close but stores may remain open).
Germany: Carnival celebrations in western and southwestern Germany; some shops and businesses closed, along with roads on parade routes. Cities affected include Cologne, Düsseldorf and Mainz, among other locations.
United States: President's Day (Most government offices closed; some businesses close.)
Christianity - Orthodox Old Calendar: Presentation of Christ in the Temple

16 February

Italy: Venice Carnival
Canada: Winter Olympics in Vancouver
France (Nice): The Carnival de Nice, a period of parades and revelry in the weeks leading up to Lent, begins. Other cities and villages also have their own smaller versions. Lasts through 2 March.
China: New Year (Businesses and government offices closed. Public parades and celebrations may affect transportation.)
Taiwan: Lunar New Year (Public and bank holiday; Government and business offices closed. Potential transportation delays possible.)
Vietnam: Tet Eve (Vietnamese Lunar New Years)
Latin America and Caribbean: Carnival for Latin America and the Caribbean. Celebration dates and traditions vary in each country (In Brazil, large celebrations are expected in Rio de Janeiro and other cities. Some shops, businesses and offices close.)
Germany: Carnival celebrations in western and southwestern Germany; some shops and businesses closed, along with roads on parade routes. Cities affected include Cologne, Düsseldorf and Mainz, among other locations.
Lithuania: Independence Day (1916 - businesses and offices close)

17 February

Canada: Winter Olympics in Vancouver
France (Nice): The Carnival de Nice, a period of parades and revelry in the weeks leading up to Lent, begins. Other cities and villages also have their own smaller versions. Lasts through 2 March.
China: New Year (Businesses and government offices closed. Public parades and celebrations may affect transportation.)
Taiwan: Lunar New Year (Public and bank holiday; Government and business offices closed. Potential transportation delays possible.)
Germany: Carnival celebrations in western and southwestern Germany; some shops and businesses closed, along with roads on parade routes. Cities affected include Cologne, Düsseldorf and Mainz, among other locations.
Kosovo: Independence Day
Christianity: Ash Wednesday (Observed as a partial public holiday in some countries, including France and Panama.)

18 February

Canada: Winter Olympics in Vancouver
France (Nice): The Carnival de Nice, a period of parades and revelry in the weeks leading up to Lent, begins. Other cities and villages also have their own smaller versions. Lasts through 2 March.
China: New Year (Businesses and government offices closed. Public parades and celebrations may affect transportation.)
Taiwan: Lunar New Year (Public and bank holiday; Government and business offices closed. Potential transportation delays possible.)
Nepal: Democracy Day (Protests possible)

ASI THREAT LEVEL DEFINITIONS

1 - Security issues rarely affect individuals or organizations. These locations have an extremely low rate of violent crime.

2 - Locations may have several low-level security issues, but these generally have minimal physical impact on individuals and organizations.

3 - Incidents of violent crime, terrorism and/or extremist activity occur more frequently, but are still sporadic.

4 - Incidents such as armed robbery, carjacking, civil unrest, terrorism and/or extremist activity can occur frequently, and there is a greater risk that security issues could physically impact individuals and organizations.

5 - Locations can be affected by rampant violent crime, volatile situations of civil unrest, frequent terrorist extremist attacks and/or open military conflict.

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