Chile (Security threat level - ): Student groups are planning to demonstrate in Santiago and other cities across the country on 16 May 2012 to demand education reforms. The demonstration in Santiago is scheduled to begin at 1100 local time (1500 UTC) at Plaza Italia, from where participants will march on a route that will travel along Alameda Avenue and end at Mapocho Station. Demonstrations are also being organized in Valparaiso, Talca, Curico, Concepcion, Chillan, Valdivia, Osorno and Castro, though turnout for these events will likely be much lower than in Santiago. Supporters of the Confederation of Students of Chile (CONFECH) and the Coordinating Assembly of Secondary Students (ACES) are among the groups expected to join the protests.

Analyst Comment: The last nationwide student demonstrations occurred in April 2012, when tens of thousands of people gathered in Santiago and other cities. The protests were largely peaceful apart from isolated incidents in which a small group of protesters in Santiago set fire to a security guard booth and hurled rocks and other projectiles at police officers, who fired water cannons to disperse them. It is possible that isolated incidents of violence could accompany the protests on 16 May, and large gatherings should be avoided to the extent possible. In addition, travelers should anticipate the possibility of traffic disruptions as a result of the street demonstrations.

Colombia (Security threat level - ): A bomb attack in northern Bogota targeted former Colombian Interior Minister Fernando Londono on 15 May 2012. The attack occurred at approximately 1100 local time near the corner of Calle 74 and Caracas Avenue in a busy commercial area. Initial reports suggested that the blast took place on a minibus, but an investigation later revealed that the perpetrators planted the explosive device on Londono’s armored vehicle and detonated it remotely. Londono’s bodyguard and his driver were killed in the attack, and at least 39 others were injured. The blast also destroyed nearby vehicles and damaged several buildings.

Security officials have attributed the attack to the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), but Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos has stated that it is still too early to determine who was responsible, and the government is offering a monetary reward for information on the incident. Londono is very critical of the FARC and what he believes is the government’s soft stance toward the group. The attack came just hours after authorities dismantled a car bomb outside a police station in the Eduardo Santos district. A suspect implicated the FARC in that attempted attack. It remains unclear if the two incidents are linked. The last attack to take place in Bogota attributed to the FARC occurred in August 2010. Several smaller bombings have taken place in the city since that time, but none directly linked to the FARC. Officials have increased security in the city in response to the 15 May developments.

Bangladesh (Security threat level - ): A coalition of opposition parties led by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) has called for a nationwide general strike on 17 May 2012 to protest a judicial decision to jail more than 30 coalition leaders in connection with an arson case. The decision prompted violence outside the Dhaka courthouse on 16 May as opposition members rioted and clashed with authorities. Several people were injured and vehicles and nearby buildings were vandalized in the fighting. According to reports, violent demonstrations also took place in several other cities.

Analyst Comment: The general strike will be observed in Bogra, Chittagong, Sirajganj and other major cities across the country; demonstrations are also likely to continue in Dhaka. Political protests in Bangladesh frequently result in violence between demonstrators and law enforcement and often disrupt transit and commercial activity. Travelers should monitor local developments and avoid unnecessary movement on 17 May.

Russia (Security threat level - ): As previously predicted in Hot Spots, anti-riot police officers dispersed protesters in the area of Chistye Prudy Boulevard in central Moscow on 16 May 2012. Authorities launched the operation at the protest site at approximately 0530 local time (0130 UTC), dispersing dozens of protesters and detaining more than 20 who refused to leave. There were no reports of significant violence during the incident. Organizers of the action have complained that the dispersal was unwarranted, given that they had agreed to leave the site at noon local time on 16 May. The activists have since moved to a park near Barrikadnaya metro station and have indicated that they will continue their protest campaign until 12 June, when a second "March of Millions" protest is planned. The protests have been ongoing since 9 May following President Vladimir Putin's inauguration on 7 May.

Kenya (Security threat level - ): Unknown assailants attempted to throw a hand grenade into a restaurant in Mombasa on 15 May 2012. The attack took place at the Bella Vista pub, which is located in an area popular with Kenyan tourists near the Sports Complex in central Mombasa. According to reports, bouncers prevented the attackers from throwing two grenades into the establishment, but the gunmen did open fire on the restaurant. At least five people were injured in the incident; one of the club’s bouncers succumbed to her wounds at a local hospital.

Analyst Comment: No group has claimed responsibility for the incident, which is the second grenade attack in the area in as many months. Suspected al-Shabab militants previously targeted a restaurant in the Tononoka district on 31 March, resulting in two injuries. Militants also bombed a religious meeting in Mtwapa -- located 7 mi/12 km north of the city -- on the same day, killing two people and wounding more than two dozen others. Al-Shabab militants have conducted several attacks in Mombasa and Nairobi -- killing 10 people -- since Kenya's October 2011 incursion into Somalia to combat the militant group.

Swaziland (Security threat level - ): Striking bus drivers clashed with anti-riot police officers in Swaziland's economic capital Manzini on 15 May 2012. Reports indicate that the violence erupted when the police officers tried to force the drivers to relocate to a new bus terminal outside of the city center. The drivers occupied the old station and threw rocks at police officers who attempted to evict them. Authorities responded by firing tear gas and using batons to disperse the crowd. The unrest lasted for several hours.

In response to the violence, the Swaziland Transport and Allied Workers Union called for a nine-day national strike from 29 May. The union stated that it intends to "shut down Swaziland" by blocking imports from neighboring South Africa.

SIGNIFICANT DATES

17 May

Cayman Islands: Discovery Day (Public holiday)
Democratic Republic Of Congo: National Liberation Day (Public holiday)
Norway: Constitution Day (Full public holiday)
Peru: Anniversary of Sendero Luminoso (Shining Path) rebel group's rebellion (Terrorist attacks may occur in Lima or in other areas of Peru.)
Christianity: Ascension Day (Public holiday in various countries worldwide, particularly in Europe and Africa.)

18 May

Haiti: Flag Day/University Day
Turkmenistan: Constitution Day (Public holiday)

19 May

Turkey: Ataturk Commemoration and Youth and Sports Day (Holiday for high school and university students. Offices and businesses function as usual.)
Uruguay: Battle of Las Piedras

20 May

Cameroon: National Day (Public holiday. Government offices, schools and many businesses close. Public ceremonies take place.)
Israel: Jerusalem Day (Parade usually staged; violence possible)
Timor - Leste: Independence Day (Public holiday)

21 May

Canada: Victoria Day
Chile: Navy Day (Celebrates Naval Battle of Iquique. Public holiday; celebrations occur.)

22 May

Yemen: National Unity Day (Celebration of Yemen’s unification in 1990. Most offices and businesses close.)

23 May

Cambodia: Royal Ploughing Ceremony (Corresponds to the start the planting season; public holiday; celebrations organized)
Egypt: Presidential election

24 May

Egypt: Presidential election
Bulgaria: Cyril and Methodius/Slavic Heritage Day (Public holiday. Most offices and businesses close.)
Eritrea: Independence Day (Everything closes)
Macedonia: Sts. Cyrilus and Methodius Day

25 May

Argentina: Anniversary of 1810 Revolution / First Argentine Government
Bolivia: Sucre Local Festival
Cambodia: National Day (Anniversary of the 1810 Revolution) (Public holiday; most government and business offices close. Demonstrations may occur.)
Jordan: Independence Day (Independence in 1946 from the League of Nations mandate under British administration. Public holiday; most government and business offices close.)
Lebanon: Liberation and Resistance Day (Commemorates Israeli withdrawal from Southern Lebanon in 2000. Public and educational institutions are closed. Ceremonies organized in southern Lebanon.)
Sudan: May Revolution Anniversary
Africa: Africa Day. Marked throughout Africa. (Observed as a public holiday in Chad, Comoros, Equatorial Guinea, Liberia, Mali, Mauritania, Namibia, Nigeria, Zambia and Zimbabwe.)

26 May

Georgia: Independence Day (Public holiday)
Guyana: Independence Day (Public holiday)
Lesotho: General elections

SECURITY THREAT LEVEL DEFINITIONS

1 - Security issues rarely affect individuals or organizations. These locations have an extremely low rate of violent crime.

2 - Locations may have several low-level security issues, but these generally have minimal physical impact on individuals and organizations.

3 - Incidents of violent crime, terrorism and/or extremist activity occur more frequently, but are still sporadic.

4 - Incidents such as armed robbery, carjacking, civil unrest, terrorism and/or extremist activity can occur frequently, and there is a greater risk that security issues could physically impact individuals and organizations.

5 - Locations can be affected by rampant violent crime, volatile situations of civil unrest, frequent terrorist extremist attacks and/or open military conflict.

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