Belgium (Security threat level - ): A nationwide strike by public and private sector workers is scheduled to take place on 30 January 2012 to protest government austerity measures. The work stoppage is scheduled to coincide with an EU meeting in Brussels to discuss austerity measures and will likely affect most forms of transportation, including subway, bus and rail services in Brussels and other cities. Disruptions to air traffic are also expected, with Brussels South Charleroi Airport (EBCI/CRL) closed for the duration of the strike and flights at Brussels Airport (EBBR/BRU) reduced. Eurostar is reportedly making contingency plans to provide buses for service between Lille and Brussels and Thalys -- a high speed train service -- has canceled services in Belgium scheduled for 30 January. Port operators have also warned of operational disruptions, as ports are reportedly planning to close from 0600 local time (0500 UTC) on 30 January until 0600 local time (0500 UTC) on 31 January.

Italy (Security threat level - ): As previously announced, a public transportation strike is underway in Italy on 27 January 2012 to protest against various government measures. Response to the strike call has been mixed. In Turin, for example, approximately 40 percent of the employees observed the strike, and the subway was functioning normally as of last report. Buses and trains, however, were operating on reduced schedules. Means of public transportation in Rome were also not at a total halt but were operating on a reduced schedule.

A group of Alitalia's flight attendants called off a four-hour strike. Disruptions nevertheless occurred in the aviation sector because of separate strikes by airport employees, Alitalia pilots (between 1313 and 1730 local time/1213-1630 UTC) and by Alitalia flight attendants belonging to another union (the latter is a 24-hour strike). As of last report, 57 flights had been canceled at Rome's Leonardo da Vinci (Fiumicino) International Airport (LIRF/FCO); 37 of those were flights operated by Alitalia and the rest by Meridiana Fly, Liberia, Lufthansa and British Airways. Meanwhile, Meridiana Fly employees will observe a 24-hour strike on 28 January.

Several hundred people staged a protest march in Rome. Some of the participants burned the EU flag, but thus far there have been no reports of violence or disturbances during the protest.

Egypt (Security threat level - ): An estimated 10,000 protesters gathered in Tahrir Square in downtown Cairo on 27 January 2012 for a planned rally dubbed both the "Friday of Pride and Dignity" and the "Second Friday of Anger." The event marks the first anniversary of protests that occurred in January 2011 and which were seen as pivotal in the uprising against the former regime. As part of the planned protests, marches took place from multiple areas of Cairo, from where they converged on Tahrir Square. In addition to activist groups, the Muslim Brotherhood also supported the ongoing protests, during which demonstrators have chanted anti-government and anti-military slogans and have called for the transfer of power to a civilian government. Security forces have maintained their distance from both the marches and the main rally at Tahrir Square in an effort to prevent confrontations between them and protesters; there have been no reports of violence, but traffic is disrupted in the Tahrir Square area.

Democratic Republic Of Congo (Security threat level - ): Police officers blockaded several roads in Kinshasa's Limete district and sealed off the residence of opposition leader Etienne Tshisekedi on 26 January 2012. Reports indicate that police officers dispersed Tshisekedi supporters with tear gas as they attempted to gather outside his home. At least four people were injured, and authorities made several arrests. Police officers also prevented journalists from accessing the area. Tshisekedi had reportedly intended to march to the presidential palace on 26 January, prompting the police actions, which effectively placed him under house arrest. Tshisekedi came in second place in the Democratic Republic of Congo's November 2011 presidential election, but he rejected the results and declared himself president.

Nigeria (Security threat level - ): On 26 January 2012 gunmen kidnapped a German national in the northern city of Kano. Reports indicate that the incident took place during the morning hours on the outskirts of the city. The perpetrators handcuffed the victim and forced him into the trunk of a vehicle. No additional details on the kidnapping are currently available. The victim is reportedly an engineer employed by the Nigerian construction company Dantata and Sawoe.

Analyst Comment: Kidnappings of foreign nationals are relatively rare in northern Nigeria. In the most recent high profile case, in May 2011 a British and an Italian national were abducted from the northern city of Birnin-Kebbi. Authorities believe that the kidnappers in that case were tied to the al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) organization. No group has claimed responsibility for the 26 January kidnapping in Kano, but it comes after the radical Islamist sect Boko Haram carried out a series of bombings and shooting sprees in the city on 20 January, killing more than 180 people. Kidnapping has not traditionally been a tactic of Boko Haram, but, given the recent upsurge in its activity in Kano, it is possible that the group perpetrated the abduction.

Senegal (Security threat level - ): Several hundred young opposition protesters have taken to the streets of central Dakar on 27 January 2012 just ahead of an expected Constitutional Council decision regarding President Abdoulaye Wade's application for candidacy in the upcoming presidential election. Protesters gathered in the main downtown square of the capital after the government granted a last-minute approval for an opposition rally despite a ban on demonstrations and gatherings imposed earlier in the week. The Constitutional Council is expected to approve Wade's third bid for the presidency despite the ongoing controversy regarding his eligibility. Opposition groups claim that Wade cannot run due to a two-term limit on the executive position. Wade has contended that the limit was adopted after his initial election and is not retro-active.

Analyst Comment: Tensions in Senegal have been high for months over this political issue. Violent incidents and demonstrations have occurred in the past in connection with these developments. There are concerns that the possible approval of Wade's candidacy could prompt violent actions and possible clashes in Dakar and/or elsewhere in the country. Such concerns are expected to remain elevated as the vote draws nearer.

GOVERNMENT WARNINGS

Nigeria (Security threat level - ): On 26 January 2012 the U.S. Embassy in Abuja and the U.S. Consulate General in Lagos issued the following Emergency Message: "The U.S. Mission alerts U.S. citizens that assailants kidnapped a German citizen along the Zaria Road in Kano, Kano State, on January 26. According to media reports, investigators believe the abduction occurred at the construction site where the individual worked. As a follow-up to the last Emergency Message for U.S. Citizens (released January 21), the U.S. Mission to Nigeria has temporarily deferred all travel by U.S. government personnel to northern Nigeria. As a reminder, curfews of varying durations remain in place in the cities of Gusau (Zamfara State), Kano (Kano State), Maiduguri (Borno State), Minna (Niger State), Potiskum (Yobe State), and Yola (Adamawa State).

"The U.S. Embassy continues to monitor closely the ongoing threat posed by a Nigerian extremist group and various criminal groups, and their intentions to carry out attacks against the Nigerian government and western interests in Nigeria. Locations where large crowds may gather, including large hotels, places of worship, shopping centers, and areas frequented by expatriates and foreign travelers are potential targets. Nigerian police and military units may establish additional police checkpoints, security, and road blocks in major cities for the foreseeable future.

"Please review your personal security plans, remain aware of your surroundings, monitor local news stations for updates, and report specific incidents of targeted violence to the U.S. Embassy in Abuja or the U.S. Consulate General in Lagos..."

SIGNIFICANT DATES

27 January

Switzerland (Davos): Annual World Economic Forum (WEF) held in Davos from 25-29 January. Protests in other Swiss cities, including Geneva and Zurich, may occur.
Germany: WW II Genocide Memorial Day (Shops, businesses open)
Italy: 24-hour nationwide strike in the transportation sector is underway; scheduled to last until 2100 local time (2000 UTC)
Monaco: Saint Devote's Day (Public holiday)
Spain: Pilots' strike at Spanish airline Iberia (Flight cancellations expected.)
United Kingdom: WW II Genocide Memorial Day (Observed)

28 January

Switzerland (Davos): Annual World Economic Forum (WEF) held in Davos from 25-29 January. Protests in other Swiss cities, including Geneva and Zurich, may occur.
India: Vasanta Panchami (Advent of spring). Sirapanchami (Bank holiday in Orissa) and Sarasvati Puja (Bank holiday in Bengal.)

30 January

Belgium: Nationwide general strike
India: Anniversary of Mahatma Gandhi’s assassination
Spain: Pilots' strike at Spanish airline Iberia (Flight cancellations expected.)
United Kingdom (Northern Ireland): Bloody Sunday Anniversary (1972)

1 February

Iran: 11 Days of Dawn (Commemoration of the 1979 revolution; rallies and celebrations likely. Opposition rallies possible as well.)
Malaysia: Federal Territory Day (Only observed in Putrajaya, Kuala Lumpur and Labuan)

2 February

Iran: 11 Days of Dawn (Commemoration of the 1979 revolution; rallies and celebrations likely. Opposition rallies possible as well.)
Brazil: Fiesta de Nossa Senhora dos Navegantes Porto Alegre. (Some businesses close. Most shopping centers, restaurants and clubs remain open.)

3 February

Iran: 11 Days of Dawn (Commemoration of the 1979 revolution; rallies and celebrations likely. Opposition rallies possible as well.)
Paraguay: San Blas Day (Patron Saint of Paraguay - Celebrations in Itá)
Paraguay: Anniversary of the end of Alfredo Stroessner's dictatorship (Demonstrations may occur.)

4 February

Iran: 11 Days of Dawn (Commemoration of the 1979 revolution; rallies and celebrations likely. Opposition rallies possible as well.)
Sri Lanka: Independence Day (1948) (Violence possible. Visitors should keep as low a profile as possible.)
Venezuela: Anniversary of 1992 failed coup by Hugo Chávez (Demonstrations may occur among Chávez supporters celebrating the date and among his opponents who denounce the celebrations.)
Islam: Mawlid al-Nabi (Birthday of Islam's Prophet Muhammad. Public holiday in several Muslim countries, most offices and businesses close.)

5 February

Iran: 11 Days of Dawn (Commemoration of the 1979 revolution; rallies and celebrations likely. Opposition rallies possible as well.)
Burundi: Unity Day (Public holiday. Banks and offices may be closed.)
Colombia: ELN Guerrilla Group Founded in 1958
Mexico: Anniversary of the Constitution (Established in 1917. Government offices and most schools close. Public gatherings are likely.)
Tanzania: Chama Cha Mapinduzi Day (Founding of the Tanzanian ruling party. Low-level political violence may occur.)

6 February

Iran: 11 Days of Dawn (Commemoration of the 1979 revolution; rallies and celebrations likely. Opposition rallies possible as well.)
Italy: Venice Carnival
New Zealand: Waitangi Day (National Day) (Government offices and businesses close.)

SECURITY THREAT LEVEL DEFINITIONS

1 - Security issues rarely affect individuals or organizations. These locations have an extremely low rate of violent crime.

2 - Locations may have several low-level security issues, but these generally have minimal physical impact on individuals and organizations.

3 - Incidents of violent crime, terrorism and/or extremist activity occur more frequently, but are still sporadic.

4 - Incidents such as armed robbery, carjacking, civil unrest, terrorism and/or extremist activity can occur frequently, and there is a greater risk that security issues could physically impact individuals and organizations.

5 - Locations can be affected by rampant violent crime, volatile situations of civil unrest, frequent terrorist extremist attacks and/or open military conflict.

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